Scenario-Based LULC Dynamics Projection Using the CA–Markov Model on Upper Awash Basin (UAB), Ethiopia

Understanding the spatiotemporal changes in land use and cover (LULC) watershed is crucial for maintaining sustainability of resources. This study intents to understand historical (1972–2015) future (2030–2060) distribution LULC Upper Awash Basin (UAB). The supervised Maximum Likelihood Classifier technique (MLC) was implemented classification. Cellular Automata-Markov (CA–Markov) model employed project two scenarios LULC, ‘business-as-usual’ (BAU) ‘governance’ (Gov). Results from area show that urban cropland areas increased 52.53 km2 (0.45%) 354.14 (3.01%) 6040.75 (51.25%) 8472.45 (71.97%), respectively. Whereas grassland, shrubland, water bodies shrunk 2052.08 (17.41%) 447.63 (3.80%), 2462.99 (20.89%) 1399.49 (11.89%) 204.87 (1.74%) 152.44 (1.29%), respectively, 1972 2015. results indicated forest highly vulnerable occupied by areas. projected under BAU scenario shows substantial expansion, increasing (71.97%) 2015 9159.21 (77.71%) 2060 (3.1%) 2015, 1196.78 (10.15%) 2060, at expense vegetation cover. These provide insight intothe area, thus requiring urgent attention managers, policymakers, stakeholders sustainable practices UAB. Meanwhile, Gov indicates an increase vegetable covers a decrease cropland, encouraging development compared scenario.